Maya: I bought a gift for my aunt yesterday, but then I realised there were four items in the box. I took one out immediately.
Daniel: You’re joking.
Maya: Absolutely not. Four is unlucky. Especially for gifts. I’m not going to hand someone four things and accidentally wish them bad luck.
Daniel: So what did you do with the fourth item?
Maya: Kept it for myself. Problem solved.
Daniel: Congratulations. You’ve defeated mathematics by eating one chocolate.
Maya: Laugh all you want. In Hong Kong, people take these things seriously. Four sounds like sei, which is associated with death. That’s why I’d rather give two, six, eight, or nine things. Those numbers have much better associations.
Daniel: I understand the cultural association. What I don’t understand is why the number of objects would change what happens to your aunt.
Maya: Because numbers carry meaning. If I give her four oranges, it feels wrong. If I give her eight, it feels auspicious.
Daniel: But the oranges don’t know how to count.
Maya: Neither does your face when you’re about to receive a four-item gift.
Daniel: Fair point.
Maya: Last year, my colleague gave her boyfriend four watches for his birthday.
Daniel: Four watches?
Maya: Exactly. Everyone told her not to. Two months later, they broke up.
Daniel: And there it is.
Maya: What?
Daniel: The evidence.
Maya: Obviously.
Daniel: Did the watches break the relationship?
Maya: I didn’t say the watches did it.
Daniel: Then what are we arguing about?
Maya: The number was a bad sign.
Daniel: Maybe the boyfriend was just terrible.
Maya: He was actually terrible.
Daniel: So we agree.
Maya: No. The four watches were still suspicious.
Daniel: That’s confirmation bias. You remember the four-watch story because something bad happened afterward. But imagine she gave him four watches and they stayed happily married for forty years. Nobody would tell that story.
Maya: Maybe because nothing interesting happened.
Daniel: Exactly. That’s the problem. If you believe four predicts bad luck, almost any bad event afterward becomes evidence. But the thousands of ordinary events after people encounter the number four disappear from the story.
Maya: You make everything sound like a statistics lecture.
Daniel: Because statistics is basically the adult version of “Are you sure?”
Maya: Fine. Here’s another example. My grandmother never gave anyone four of anything. Not fruit, not flowers, not money. She always used two or eight. She lived to ninety-two.
Daniel: That’s lovely.
Maya: See? It worked.
Daniel: Or she simply lived to ninety-two because human lifespan isn’t controlled by gift baskets.
Maya: You really know how to ruin a nice family tradition.
Daniel: I’m not saying the tradition is meaningless. I’m saying there’s a difference between cultural meaning and physical causation.
Maya: Explain.
Daniel: If giving eight oranges makes your family feel lucky, that’s real as a social and emotional effect. But there’s no good scientific evidence that eight oranges increase someone’s probability of getting a promotion, recovering from illness, or winning the Mark Six.
Maya: Then why do so many people prefer eight?
Daniel: Because cultural beliefs spread socially. If everyone around you says eight is lucky, you notice eight more. Businesses notice it too. That’s why you see addresses, phone numbers, prices, and license plates using auspicious numbers.
Maya: So you’re saying everyone is just imagining it?
Daniel: Not imagining the preference. The preference is real. The supernatural effect is the part that lacks evidence.
Maya: Hmm. But suppose I’m buying you a gift. I can give you four chocolates or eight chocolates. Why risk four?
Daniel: Because I’m hungry enough to accept either.
Maya: You’re impossible.
Daniel: Give me eight. Not because it’s lucky. Because I want eight chocolates.
Maya: Fine. But if I give you four and something bad happens, don’t blame me.
Daniel: If something bad happens, I’ll blame the other 7.999 million variables in my life first.
Maya: And if nothing bad happens?
Daniel: You’ll say I was lucky because you secretly gave me eight.
Maya: Exactly.
Daniel: That’s not how testing a belief works.
Maya: Maybe not. But traditions aren’t always experiments.
Daniel: True. And I’m not asking you to throw away your culture. If avoiding four makes someone comfortable and doesn’t hurt anyone, fine. Just don’t confuse a meaningful tradition with a demonstrated law of nature.
Maya: So your position is: I can keep avoiding four, as long as I don’t claim four has supernatural powers?
Daniel: Precisely.
Maya: That’s disappointingly reasonable.
Daniel: I try.
Maya: Fine. I’ll give you eight chocolates.
Daniel: Thank you.
Maya: But I’ll keep one.
Daniel: Why?
Maya: Because eight is auspicious.
Daniel: You mean because you want chocolate.
Maya: That too.
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