Arjun: Bro, I found a really nice condo near Tiong Bahru. Two bedrooms, MRT five minutes away, good light, decent rent.
Daniel: Sounds perfect. So what’s the catch?
Arjun: Unit 404.
Daniel: Ah. There it is.
Arjun: Don’t laugh. I’m serious. Four is considered unlucky in Chinese culture. It sounds like death. I don’t want to live in a place that literally has death in its number.
Daniel: By that logic, you should also avoid every fourth floor, fourth month, and anything with four objects in it.
Arjun: Many buildings here skip the fourth floor.
Daniel: Exactly. That’s a cultural practice, not evidence that the fourth floor is dangerous.
Arjun: Easy for you to say. Imagine living in 404 and something goes wrong. You’ll be thinking, “I should have listened.”
Daniel: That’s called confirmation bias. If something goes wrong in 404, you’ll connect it to the number. If you live in 405 and something goes wrong, you’ll call it bad luck, bad maintenance, bad timing—or just life.
Arjun: Hmm. But there’s a reason the tradition exists.
Daniel: Absolutely. The linguistic association is real. In Mandarin, Cantonese and some other Chinese varieties, the pronunciation of four resembles the word for death. That’s a genuine cultural association. I’m not arguing with that.
Arjun: So you admit four is connected to death.
Daniel: Linguistically. Not causally.
Arjun: What’s the difference?
Daniel: If I say your name sounds like the word “banana,” that’s an association. It doesn’t mean bananas will cause you to fall down the stairs.
Arjun: That’s a terrible example.
Daniel: It’s memorable, though.
Arjun: Fine. But I’ve heard stories. My colleague refused a unit on the fourth floor, and later found out someone had died in the building.
Daniel: Did the person die because the apartment was on the fourth floor?
Arjun: No, obviously.
Daniel: Then the story doesn’t establish what you think it establishes.
Arjun: But you can’t prove that the number has zero effect either.
Daniel: That’s not how evidence works. We don’t normally prove a negative with absolute certainty. We ask whether there’s reliable evidence that people living in homes containing the number four experience worse outcomes because of the number.
Arjun: And?
Daniel: No convincing evidence that the digit itself causes death, illness, accidents, or financial disaster.
Arjun: What about people who genuinely feel uncomfortable living there?
Daniel: That’s different. If a person believes 404 is unlucky, living in 404 may genuinely make them anxious. But the anxiety comes from the belief, not from some invisible property of the number.
Arjun: So you’re saying the number can affect your life psychologically, but not magically?
Daniel: Exactly.
Arjun: That’s actually a little annoying.
Daniel: Why?
Arjun: Because I was hoping you would tell me I’m being irrational and then I’d dramatically ignore you.
Daniel: You can still do that.
Arjun: Thank you.
Daniel: Look at it this way. Singapore has thousands of apartments with numbers containing four. If the number itself caused bad outcomes, we’d expect some detectable pattern—higher accident rates, higher mortality, more financial problems, something.
Arjun: Unless the universe is very selective.
Daniel: The universe has excellent lawyers, apparently.
Arjun: Maybe people who believe in four simply avoid those apartments, so you don’t see the effect.
Daniel: That’s a fairer argument. But then we’re looking at people’s behaviour, not a supernatural effect of the number. If avoiding 404 makes someone choose a better apartment, that’s a consequence of their decision-making.
Arjun: You really won’t let me blame the number.
Daniel: I’ll let you blame the number if it starts paying rent.
Arjun: Okay, suppose you were apartment hunting. You find two identical units. One is 404 and costs $300 less per month. Which one do you choose?
Daniel: 404.
Arjun: Without hesitation?
Daniel: Absolutely.
Arjun: You’re either extremely rational or extremely cheap.
Daniel: In Singapore, those two qualities often overlap.
Arjun: And if you moved into 404 and then had three terrible things happen in one month?
Daniel: I’d investigate the three things. If my fridge died, I’d call a technician. If I got sick, I’d look at exposure and symptoms. If I lost money, I’d examine the financial decision.
Arjun: You wouldn’t think, “Maybe it’s the four”?
Daniel: I’d think, “Interesting coincidence.” Then I’d ask whether people in units without four experience the same kinds of problems.
Arjun: That’s very scientific of you.
Daniel: That’s the whole point. A coincidence can feel incredibly meaningful. But feeling meaningful and being causally meaningful aren’t the same thing.
Arjun: Still… I’d probably choose 405.
Daniel: That’s fine.
Arjun: You don’t think that’s irrational?
Daniel: Not necessarily. If choosing 405 costs you nothing and gives you peace of mind, go for it. What I object to is saying that 404 is objectively dangerous without evidence.
Arjun: So I can avoid four because I don’t like it, but I shouldn’t claim four has supernatural powers.
Daniel: Precisely.
Arjun: Hmm.
Daniel: What?
Arjun: I just checked the listing again.
Daniel: And?
Arjun: It’s actually unit 405.
Daniel: …
Arjun: Maybe the universe wants me to rent it.
Daniel: Or maybe you finally learned to read properly.
Arjun: Don’t ruin the omen, Daniel.
Daniel: Fine. Congratulations. You have been scientifically approved for 405.
Arjun: Thank you. I feel much safer already.
Daniel: That’s called a placebo.
Arjun: Shut up and help me negotiate the rent.
Science Vs Superstition 
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