Setting: A kopi tiam in Tampines, late evening.
Wei Ming: Eh, you saw the accident at PIE this morning or not? The taxi plate number was 4387. I quickly buy 4387 for 4D just now. Confirm got chance.
Arjun: Confirm? Based on what, bro? Physics of collision equals probability of winning lottery ah?
Wei Ming: Don’t play play. After big events, the numbers become “hot.” My uncle always watch for car plates after accidents or weddings. Last year he won $2,000 after seeing a fire engine number.
Arjun: How many times did he lose before that?
Wei Ming: Aiya, small small losses only. But that one time covered everything.
Arjun: That’s exactly how probability traps people. You remember the win because it’s dramatic. The dozens of losing tickets? Forgotten. That’s called confirmation bias.
Wei Ming: Wah, now you sound like one psychology textbook. But you cannot deny many Singaporeans do this. Even my neighbour downstairs—every time got funeral, he check the hearse number and buy.
Arjun: Just because many people do something doesn’t mean it changes the math. Each 4D draw is random. The machine doesn’t know whether the number came from a wedding dinner or a car crash.
Wei Ming: But certain numbers are auspicious. Like 8—prosperity. And 4 is unlucky. That one cultural meaning what.
Arjun: Cultural meaning, yes. Mathematical influence? No. If “8” really had magical power, every 8-series number would win more often. But over thousands of draws, the frequency is roughly equal.
Wei Ming: Still, sometimes the timing feels too coincidental. Remember when we saw that Ferrari with plate 8888 at Marina Bay? Next week, 8880 came out. Very close leh.
Arjun: “Very close” doesn’t count. Lottery doesn’t give marks for approximation. You’re connecting dots after the fact. Humans are pattern-seeking machines. We see meaning even in randomness.
Wei Ming: So you’re saying all those aunties outside the betting shop staring at car plates… wasting time?
Arjun: I’m saying they’re entertaining themselves. It’s storytelling. You attach a narrative to a number—“This one from accident, very powerful.” It makes the bet feel special.
Wei Ming: But sometimes the “feeling” very strong. Like instinct.
Arjun: Instinct works for survival situations. Not for predicting pseudo-random number generators. Unless your instinct can hack Singapore Pools.
Wei Ming: Wah, don’t say until like that. Later got protective flames around the numbers, you extinguish my luck.
Arjun: Protective flames? What is this, Marvel universe? Doctor Strange guarding your 4D ticket?
Wei Ming: Laugh all you want. My cousin once saw a burning joss stick fall, number 7164. He bought it. Strike third prize.
Arjun: Okay. But how many falling joss sticks didn’t lead to a win? You only hear the success story. Nobody announces, “Eh, today I lost $10 again.”
Wei Ming: True lah… but the hope is exciting.
Arjun: And that’s fine. Buy for fun, small amount, treat it like entertainment. Just don’t believe accidents are sending you coded messages.
Wei Ming: So you won’t buy 4387 with me?
Arjun: I’ll buy kopi for you instead. Higher probability of satisfaction.
Wei Ming: You very boring leh. One day when I strike, I won’t share.
Arjun: Statistically, I’m willing to take that risk.
Wei Ming: Fine. If 4387 comes out, I’m screenshotting this conversation.
Arjun: And if it doesn’t?
Wei Ming: …Then we pretend this talk never happened.
Arjun: Exactly my point.
They both laugh, clinking their kopi cups.
Wei Ming: Okay lah. Maybe numbers don’t have flames. But dreaming a bit makes life more interesting.
Arjun: Dreaming is fine. Just don’t let randomness control your wallet.
Wei Ming: Deal. Next time accident happen, I’ll still text you the plate number though.
Arjun: I’ll reply with the probability formula.
Both grin, knowing neither will completely convert the other—but the debate itself is half the fun.
Science Vs Superstition 
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